PRED2U › Answers › Daily probability
Today's free WNBA probability
No WNBA games on 2026-11-08, or tonight's projections are not locked yet. The most recent graded samples are below; a new probability appears every slate day.
How this number is made
One player is featured per slate day: the highest projection on the board. The probability shown here is a bell-curve estimate from the locked projection and its calibrated 80% range. Members see the Monte Carlo probability in the app, which is the better-calibrated of the two. The projection is locked before tip-off, never revised, and graded against the real box score below.
Recent graded samples
| Date | Player | Milestone | Stated probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Kelsey Mitchell | 25+ pts | 44% | 10 points, miss |
| 2026-09-23 | Paige Bueckers | 20+ pts | 48% | 25 points, hit |
| 2026-09-22 | Kelsey Mitchell | 25+ pts | 51% | 20 points, miss |
| 2026-09-21 | Paige Bueckers | 15+ pts | 66% | 30 points, hit |
| 2026-09-20 | Kelsey Mitchell | 25+ pts | 53% | 22 points, miss |
| 2026-09-19 | Paige Bueckers | 15+ pts | 67% | 26 points, hit |
| 2026-09-18 | Caitlin Clark | 25+ pts | 46% | 28 points, hit |
A handful of samples is statistical noise either way; the point is that every stated probability gets graded in public. The full scored record lives on the props track record page and the record tab.
FAQ
Why does a 70% probability sometimes miss?
Because that is what 70% means: it misses three times in ten. The honest test of a probability is calibration over many samples, which is what our accuracy page measures across four seasons.
Where do the probabilities for every other player live?
In the app, for members, for every player on every slate, along with live in-game updates. This page is the free daily sample.
All figures are measured against real box scores by the same pipeline that ingests the games. Information only, not betting advice. Methodology guide.