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Today's free WNBA probability

Tonight (2026-09-23), Paige Bueckers (at SEA) has an estimated 48% probability of scoring 20+ points, from a projection of 21.5 points locked before tip-off. Her 50% core range is 15 to 24 points.

How this number is made

One player is featured per slate day: the highest projection on the board. The probability is a Monte Carlo estimate: the player's game simulated thousands of times (minutes, then attempts, then makes), the same engine members see for every player in the app. In lab testing it was the better-calibrated probability at every threshold across two full seasons. The projection is locked before tip-off, never revised, and graded against the real box score below.

Recent graded samples

A handful of samples is statistical noise either way; the point is that every stated probability gets graded in public. The full scored record lives on the props track record page and the record tab.

FAQ

Why does a 70% probability sometimes miss?

Because that is what 70% means: it misses three times in ten. The honest test of a probability is calibration over many samples, which is what our accuracy page measures across four seasons.

Where do the probabilities for every other player live?

In the app, for members, for every player on every slate, along with live in-game updates. This page is the free daily sample.

All figures are measured against real box scores by the same pipeline that ingests the games. Information only, not betting advice. Methodology guide.